Why you can stop worrying about a Tory victory, part one

It seems as if the week before every general election the party that is most likely to win has a wobble that leaves it shaken and uncertain. Usually these wobbles are self-induced, and certainly the one that Ed Miliband created on Thursday night when he tried to distance Labour from the SNP. This has led to a loose bowel moment for a lot of people, so let's get into reassurance mode and point out that Cameron is unlikely to remain Prime Minister for much longer, and Miliband is pretty much the racing certainty to take his place.

How can I be so sure? Well  just look at some possible scenarios, and to create them I want to be as conservative as possible and extenuate the positive for the Tories and play up the negatives for Labour.

We'll put the Tories on near 300 seats next Thursday, the Lib-Dems on 30, with UKIP getting five and let's allow the DUP to grab an extra two so that gives then ten seats. For its part, Labour can have about 250 seats, the SNP 50, and the minor parties ten. On the surface that means Cameron is going to wander back into Number Ten courtesy of the Lib-Dems.

However, the Lib-Dems are his only option and if they decide that having just lost about half their MPs they would rather rejoin the human race than continue supporting Cameron and refuse to play ball then the Tories are doomed. Not only that, but the Lib-Dems would have to vote for a Tory Queen's Speech, as an abstention would mean that it fails to pass. Under those circumstances Nick Clegg has Cameron's pecker firmly in his pocket, so the best that the Tories could hope for would be a Cameron led government that is in office but not in power.

To make matters even nicer, any Cameroonian Queen's Speech that did not contain a pledge of a referendum on the European Union would not be supported by UKIP, and any that did would fail to get Lib-Dem approval. Think about it for a moment: Nigel Farage has one of Cameron's balls and Clegg holds the other, and they are both able to squeeze them tightly.

It is possible that Labour could abstain on the Queen's Speech, but that is unlikely. Forget the SNP reaction, as Miliband would be torn apart by his own party. If Cameron is foolish enough to even proceed with the Speech, then Miliband has no option but to lead his troops into opposing it.

Under those circumstances Cameron would have to resign, and he would have no option but to advise The Queen to send for Miliband to form a government. Of course, Cameron could then oppose the Queen's Speech, but if his party does that then all hell will break loose in the markets. The Tories take their orders from the forces of darkness that control capitalism, and are unlikely to offend their dark masters in that way.

Faced with a Miliband government and having failed to lead the Tories to victory on two occasions, Cameron's position would probably be untenable. It is possible that dear old Boris will become the new leader by acclamation, but it is equally as likely that the Tories will need a bout of internal blood-letting before a new leader emerges as capo de tuti capi. 

Coming up in an hour or so I want to look at Miliband's options under those circumstances, but for the moment, sit yourselves down, let me put the kettle on for you and then make you a nice cup of shut the fuck up and stop worrying. Cameron will pass into the history books this month.