New IndyRef poll confirms momentum is with Yes

The TNS poll was embargoed until midnight, but the Guardian broke it at 11.00pm. It shows a statistical dead heat between Yes on 38% and No on 39%. The rest don't know.

This poll is very important as it is carried out face to face on the doorstep by a company that is mainly asking about consumer issues. The IndyRef question has been tacked on to that, which means it is a poll of genuine ordinary people, as opposed to the others which involve a panel.

The only clear lead that No now has is amongst the over 60s. Every other group, the teenagers, women, people born outside Scotland, who a month ago were strong for the Union are now moving to Yes in a big way.

What we now need from TNS is a rerun of their 2011 AV referendum poll that was carried out over the telephone. Of all the polling companies, TNS is the only one that got the result bang to rights.